Models

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 6 brokers · 266 line items · freshest revision 2026-06-11.

The street models NerdWallet as a mix shift rather than a growth story: total revenue compounds at a mid-to-high single-digit rate while credit cards shrink and loans, insurance and the other emerging verticals absorb the gap. Revenue is the tightest line in the feed; the disagreement sits in marketing spend, free cash flow and how large an audience the models even assume. Growth is modeled to come from revenue per user rather than from more users, and part of the FY-2026 per-share step is a falling share count that later years reverse. Coverage is shallow, with six brokers at most and the vertical detail resting on three.

Loans overtake credit cards — the vertical mix, not the top line, is what moves

Insurance stays the largest single vertical throughout, but the visible change is credit cards, modeled lower in every forecast year while loans move from below credit cards to roughly twice their size by FY-2027. Total revenue growth is steady either way, so the earnings case turns on which vertical carries the mix. From FY-2026 these splits rest on three brokers, and the FY-2028 column on one.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Total	—	—	—	—	—	—
Revenue	$822.92m	$883.87m	$939.82m	$993.93m	+7.4%	6
Verticals	—	—	—	—	—	—
Revenue - Credit cards	$137.66m	$100.51m	$93.40m	$88.05m	-27.0%	6
Revenue - Loans	$121.04m	$166.42m	$188.64m	$174.52m	+37.5%	6
Revenue - Other verticals	$564.22m	$617.09m	$659.70m	$698.19m	+9.4%	6
Within other verticals	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total revenue - Emerging verticals	$461.77m	$527.27m	$569.50m	$609.94m	+14.2%	6
Revenue - Insurance	$275.19m	$298.25m	$317.90m	$308.77m	+8.4%	6
Revenue - Emerging vertical excl insurance	$186.58m	$229.02m	$251.61m	$301.16m	+22.7%	6
Total revenue - SMB	$102.45m	$92.28m	$94.24m	$97.91m	-9.9%	6

Brokers converge on FY-2027 revenue and split on what it converts into

Free cash flow and marketing spend are the same argument from either end — how much NerdWallet has to spend to hold the top line — and they drive most of the FY-2027 earnings range. The audience row rests on four brokers and spans a range that covers both contraction and growth against FY-2025.

Line	Period	Median	Q1–Q3	Min–max	Brokers
Revenue	FY-2027E	$933.34m	$917.21m–$960.65m	$906.58m–$984.04m	6
Free cash flow (FCF)	FY-2027E	$109.89m	$90.56m–$122.08m	$39.84m–$143.61m	6
Sales and marketing	FY-2027E	$638.61m	$630.97m–$667.98m	$626.48m–$698.91m	5
Adjusted EBITDA	FY-2027E	$157.26m	$154.10m–$159.82m	$138.47m–$187.59m	6
Monthly unique user (MUU)(M#)	FY-2027E	22.22m Number	20.08m Number–22.90m Number	15.07m Number–23.52m Number	4

Growth is priced, not trafficked: revenue per user rises while the audience does not

Revenue per monthly unique user rises in every forecast year, while brokers do not agree the audience grows at all. Marketing dollars keep climbing against that flat user base, and the leverage instead comes from opex falling as a share of sales. The two user lines rest on four to five brokers, thinner than the P&L.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Audience	—	—	—	—	—	—
Monthly unique user (MUU)(M#)	20.88m Number	20.16m Number	20.76m Number	19.60m Number	-3.5%	6
Monetization	—	—	—	—	—	—
Revenue per MUU (monthly)($)	$3.27	$3.39	$3.54	$3.68	+3.8%	6
Operating leverage	—	—	—	—	—	—
Sales and marketing	$568.36m	$621.17m	$652.59m	$673.98m	+9.3%	6
OpEx / Sales(%)	92.6%	91.7%	90.1%	89.0%	-0.9pt	6
Operating margin(%)	7.4%	8.3%	9.9%	11.0%	+0.9pt	6

Per-share math does part of the work: the diluted count drops in FY-2026, then climbs back

Revenue per share grows far ahead of revenue in FY-2026 and behind it in FY-2027; the difference is the diluted share count, taken down in FY-2026 and back up through FY-2028. Free cash flow per share is the widest line here and the one to stress-test, since it carries the same dispersion as the cash-conversion debate above.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Shares - Diluted(M#)	76.68m Number	69.57m Number	70.77m Number	73.89m Number	-9.3%	6
Revenue per share($)	$10.73	$12.71	$13.29	$13.45	+18.4%	6
EPS - Diluted($)	$0.62	$0.81	$1.05	$1.23	+31.9%	6
Free cash flow (FCF) per share($)	$1.41	$1.43	$1.45	$1.70	+0.9%	6

Six brokers at most, three on the vertical splits, one in FY-2028

The full model set peaks at six brokers. The vertical revenue lines carry six for FY-2025 but three for FY-2026 and FY-2027 and one for FY-2028, and the forward quarterly splits thin to a single broker — read those as one analyst's model, not consensus. Almost every forward-period revision date falls in May 2026.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.